India's Navy Expansion: A Decade of Challenges Ahead

India's Navy Expansion: A Decade of Challenges Ahead\n\nThe Indian Navy's journey in 2026 has been marked by a swift expansion, with new frigates, survey ships, and platforms being commissioned. The government has authorized big acquisitions for the Navy, and home shipyards are finishing up their huge order books. However, the question of how big the Navy is in 2026 is not the most significant question asked.\n\nThe real test lies ahead in 2035, when warships' long development cycles will impact the Navy's strategic edge and capability. Warships are not aircraft or vehicles that can be manufactured and delivered in a few years. Once a ship is approved, it can take a decade to build most of a Complex Surface Combatant or Submarine. Today's delay can turn into a capability gap several years later.\n\nThis year has been very active for the Navy, with the government commissioning three ships in June. These ships were designed in India and constructed by GRSE, namely INS Dunagiri, INS Sanshodhak, and INS Agray. The Project 17A frigate programme has been bringing in new ships into the navy, with INS Mahendragiri, the last of the six Project 17A frigate class ships, being commissioned in July 2026.\n\nDuring the International Fleet Review in February, the Navy showed the size of its force, which included 12 ships from the Coast Guard and other ships from the Indian Navy. The often-quoted estimate of 19 ships being inducted in 2026 should not be misinterpreted as 19 frontline warships. Inductions throughout the year across categories and missions have been significant.\n\nThe long-term issue is best seen on aircraft carriers. India has two ships presently in service, the INS Vikramaditya and INS Vikrant. The selection of a follow-on carrier is not merely a matter of adding a third one to the current roster. It's all about getting that third carrier built in time to join the fleet ahead of age-related availability issues for the current fleet.\n\nThe follow-on indigenous aircraft carrier's formal approval is a pending question that has been left on the table in India's long-term maritime capability discussions. The timing of this approval is crucial, as building a carrier today wouldn't come overnight. Cochin Shipyard has earlier said that the construction of a carrier of Vikrant-type would take about eight to ten years.\n\nThe Kalvari class submarines have been delivered by Project-75, and the upcoming Project-75(I) is a key demand to augment India's conventional submarine fleet with AIP. The longer the big programmes are postponed between selection, contract, and construction, the more pressure there will be on the existing fleet.\n\nHere is where the difference between annual commissioning numbers and long-term fleet planning comes into play. A navy can take 100 platforms into service in a year and yet be short of some categories in the years ahead. India has achieved significant advances in building their own warships, with the government's messaging on shipbuilding, ship repair, and MRO becoming more national industrial focus.\n\nThe challenge now is maintaining continuity. A late-ordered frigate is a late-delivered frigate. When it gets to the contract stage, a submarine programme is delayed, and the entire production schedule is shifted to the right. It's not like an aircraft carrier that can be quickly sped up without doing anything to its design, capacity for infrastructure, construction, etc.\n\nThe Navy's pipeline of shipbuilding programmes that are approved by the DAC and reported on by The Eastern Strategist should therefore be taken seriously. An approval does not mean an inducted ship, and an inducted ship does not mean a signed contract.\n\nIn conclusion, the Indian Navy's expansion in 2026 is just the beginning of a decade of challenges ahead. The real test lies in 2035, when warships' long development cycles will impact the Navy's strategic edge and capability. The Navy must maintain continuity and ensure that its shipbuilding programmes are on track to meet the challenges of the future.