India's Light Tank Ambition Hinges on Timely Procurement

India's ambitious light tank project, Project Zorawar, has hit a critical juncture. The project, which aims to develop a state-of-the-art light tank, has been marred by the Army's unpredictable procurement process. Tata Advanced Systems Ltd has emerged as the lowest bidder, but the company's success is far from guaranteed.

The issue at hand is not just the Army's procurement process, but also the lack of ongoing orders. The Tata WhAP, a successful product that was developed under a similar program, serves as a stark reminder of the risks involved. Despite its success, the Tata WhAP faltered due to the lack of ongoing orders, leaving the company with an expensive infrastructure and limited alternative markets.

The problem is not unique to the Tata WhAP. India's armoured-vehicle ecosystem has been plagued by fragmented or uncertain domestic procurement, which can make it difficult for companies to achieve economies of scale. This is especially critical for defence manufacturing, which requires significant investment. The Army's unpredictable procurement process can leave companies with expensive infrastructure and limited alternative markets.

The risk is now manifested in Project Zorawar. Tata Advanced Systems Ltd has become the lowest bidder for the light-tank system project, which has a value of nearly ₹20,000 crore. Mahindra Defence Systems is also being given time to develop a prototype. The competitive approach can be particularly helpful in development, as the Army has the chance to assess a variety of engineering solutions. However, the final test will be after prototypes are evaluated.

If two or more companies invest heavily in the infrastructure and only one company receives significant production orders, the losing company may end up with an expensive infrastructure with a restricted number of alternative markets. India needs to rethink the use of Technology Transfer of Technology (ToT), Development-cum-Production Partnership, and Make programs. Ideally, technology transfer should be associated with a realistic production schedule, minimum order quantities, and clear export potential.

The government itself has been pushing for the production of domestic supplies, and recent approvals for procurement show that there is far greater potential for Indian industry. The challenge is to get that pipeline and make it into production and contracts. Ideally, for Zorawar, the Army should finalise its preferred design after intensive trials and rush into a large-scale procurement process. It would be difficult to sustain the private-sector capability that the programme is seeking if it was not to take a decision on production until years after prototypes were developed.

The fate of Project Zorawar hangs in the balance, and the clock is ticking. The Army's procurement process will determine the success of the project, and the fate of India's light tank program. The stakes are high, and the outcome is far from certain. Only time will tell if Project Zorawar will succumb to the same fate as the Tata WhAP or emerge as a successful product that will propel India's defence manufacturing forward.