Pakistan's Winter Infiltration Push: A Calculated Gamble

Pakistan's Winter Infiltration Push: A Calculated Gamble\n\nAs winter sets in across the Line of Control (LoC), intelligence agencies have reported heightened activity at launchpads in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).\n\nAccording to estimates, nearly 500 terrorists are waiting at these launchpads, poised to infiltrate Jammu and Kashmir. These terrorists have been split into small groups of three to four to minimize the risk of detection by Indian security forces.\n\nAn Intelligence Bureau official revealed that there is a lot of activity taking place at these launchpads, with the desperation of terror groups increasing as several attempts in the last one and a half years have failed due to tight border security.\n\nTerrorists usually attempt to infiltrate before the onset of winter, as heavy snowfall makes it difficult to navigate these routes. However, this year, the Pakistan Army has provided them with high-altitude gear to beat the winter and snow.\n\nThis gear, which is similar to that used by the Pakistani army in Siachen, is designed to ensure that infiltrations can take place during the peak winter.\n\nAnother official pointed out that this increase in activity at the launchpads in PoK could also be a smokescreen. The fact that terrorists from Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Hizbul Mujahideen have been provided with sophisticated gear to beat the snow suggests that their attempts to infiltrate could peak in December.\n\nIf one follows the pattern over the last several years, infiltration of terrorists normally drops drastically during December owing to heavy snowfall. However, these terror groups think that the Indian Army's guard would be relatively lower during this period, and this could be taken advantage of and infiltration could be effected.\n\nIn addition to providing these terrorists with sophisticated gear, several army personnel have been posted near the launchpads to aid infiltration. The Pakistani army is keeping a close watch on developments on the Indian side of the border.\n\nTerrorists are being provided with real-time information on the movement of Indian troops to help them time their infiltration attempts. Officials say that Pakistan is also extensively using drones to map routes and track movements of the Indian Army personnel.\n\nThey are leaving no stone unturned and are even using the most sophisticated technology and gear to ensure that a large number of terrorists can enter Jammu and Kashmir.\n\nThe Indian Army is on a state of very high alert following these inputs shared by the intelligence agencies. There is plenty of movement around the launchpads, and this prompted the Indian Army to take stringent measures to prevent infiltrations.\n\nThe urgency to push as many terrorists as possible into Jammu and Kashmir is also linked to the severe internal security challenges Pakistan has been facing. With Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), and Balochistan witnessing unrest, Pakistan is under pressure on the internal security front and may be seeking to divert attention from these challenges.\n\nIf infiltration attempts succeed, terror groups could carry out deadly attacks in Jammu and Kashmir, potentially shifting the focus away from Pakistan's internal security situation.\n\nThe worry for the Indian security agencies is that terrorists would continue to make infiltration attempts even during the peak winter. They have been aided by drone technology to map routes and movements. Further, the Pakistan Army hopes that the high-altitude gear that it has provided to these terrorists would help in infiltration even when the winter is at its peak.\n\nAs the situation unfolds, it remains to be seen whether Pakistan's calculated gamble will pay off or if the Indian security forces will be able to thwart their plans.