India's Submarine Production Conundrum: Balancing Capability and Continuity

India's submarine production capabilities have made significant strides in recent years, with the successful development and commissioning of the Kalvari-class submarines. However, the country's ability to sustain this capability over the long term is a pressing concern.

The Indian Navy's submarine fleet is aging, and the need to replace retiring vessels with new ones is becoming increasingly urgent. The current production line for the Kalvari-class submarines is set to expire soon, and the next generation of submarines, Project-75(I), is not expected to be delivered until 15-20 years from now.

This raises questions about the sustainability of India's submarine production capabilities. The episodic approach to submarine-building, where production is concentrated in short bursts followed by long periods of inactivity, hampers efficiency and skill retention. Specialist suppliers and workers may not be able to maintain their skills and expertise during periods of inactivity, leading to a loss of capability and increased costs when production resumes.

Project-75(I) offers a chance to create a long-term production ecosystem, but its delivery timeline may not meet India's industrial continuity needs effectively. The programme calls for the construction of six conventional submarines equipped with Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) in India under the Strategic Partnership model. However, the delivery timeline of 15-20 years may not be sufficient to sustain the production capabilities and skills required to build these submarines.

The Indian Navy must also consider the operational and maintenance requirements of its submarine fleet. The entry into service of new submarines does not necessarily increase the fleet's strength, as an equal number of similarly aged submarines may be decommissioned in the same time interval. To maintain the fleet's strength, India needs to produce the required number of submarines to replace those being retired.

Furthermore, the development of indigenous equipment, such as sonar, electronic systems, and air-independent propulsion, requires consistent orders from the industry to invest in production capacity. The lack of consistent orders can lead to a loss of capability and increased costs when production resumes.

In conclusion, India's submarine production capabilities are at a critical juncture. The country needs to balance its capability to develop modern submarines with the need to sustain this capability over the long term. The creation of a long-term production ecosystem, such as Project-75(I), is essential to ensure the sustainability of India's submarine production capabilities and to meet the country's industrial continuity needs effectively.