India's Fighter Modernisation Plans: A Bridge to Nowhere?

India's Fighter Modernisation Plans: A Bridge to Nowhere?

India's proposed upgrade of its Su-30MKI fighter jets, dubbed the Super Sukhoi, has been met with skepticism by Chinese commentators. They question whether the upgrade can bridge the capability gap between the Su-30MKI and the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), which is still in development.

The upgrade, which is estimated to cost around ₹63,000 crore, aims to replace the Russian N011M Bars radar with the indigenous Virupaksha active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar. The new radar system is said to have advanced capabilities, including the ability to track up to 100 targets and detect conventional aircraft at ranges of 300-400 km. However, critics argue that the upgrade is not a substitute for the AMCA, which is expected to be a fifth-generation fighter jet with advanced stealth capabilities.

One of the main concerns raised by Chinese commentators is the high cost of the upgrade. They argue that the per-aircraft expense is comparable to buying new fighters, and that the upgrade package, support equipment, and weapons integration are not included in the cost estimates. Another concern is the strain on India's aerospace industry, which is already involved in the production of the Tejas Mk1A and the Su-30MKI modernisation programmes.

The Defence Ministry's decision to exclude HAL from the competition for the AMCA prototype contract has also been questioned. The contract is now being competed between three private-sector bidders and consortia, which has raised concerns about the industry's capacity to deliver the AMCA on time and within budget.

The development of the AMCA is also facing challenges, including the need for a more powerful engine. The initial aircraft is planned around the GE F414 engine, but a more powerful engine is required for a later configuration. This requires further development and industrial collaboration, which is a strategic issue for India.

Some commentators have also pointed out that China is expected to operate around 1,500 J-20 fighters by 2035, which is a significant increase in its fighter jet inventory. However, this figure is not an established inventory figure, and other open-source assessments have estimated approximately 500 delivered by mid-2026.

In conclusion, India's fighter modernisation plans, including the Super Sukhoi upgrade, are facing significant challenges. The upgrade is not a substitute for the AMCA, and the development of the AMCA is facing challenges, including the need for a more powerful engine. The strain on India's aerospace industry and the high cost of the upgrade are also concerns that need to be addressed. The Indian government needs to carefully consider these challenges and develop a comprehensive plan to modernise its fighter jet fleet and ensure its air power capabilities are not compromised.