India's Counter-Drone Defenses Tested by Russia's Rapidly Evolving Shahed-Derived Drones

Evolving Drone Threats: Lessons for India from the Geran Programme

The recent developments in Russia's Shahed-derived Geran family of drones have raised concerns about the potential limitations of India's counter-drone systems. The Geran programme has demonstrated a remarkable ability to evolve and adapt, posing a significant challenge to the effectiveness of India's current counter-drone capabilities.

One of the key factors contributing to the success of the Geran programme is its ability to rapidly improve its speed and altitude capabilities. The Geran-4, for instance, has been reported to reach speeds of up to 500 km/h, while the larger Geran-5 can reach speeds of up to 600 km/h and altitudes of up to 6,000 metres. This significant increase in speed and altitude has made it increasingly difficult for counter-drone systems to detect and intercept these drones.

The experience of Ukraine's Air Force is a stark reminder of the challenges posed by the Geran programme. According to reports, the interception rate against the Geran-4 and Geran-5 has dropped to 60%, compared to 90-95% against the conventional Geran-2-class drones. This decline in interception rates is attributed to the increased speed and altitude of the newer variants, which provide less time for detection, classification, targeting, and interception.

The Geran programme's ability to operate online via mesh communications has also added to the complexity of the counter-drone challenge. This allows operators to control the drone during its mission, making it more difficult to defeat the aircraft with a single counter-measure. Ukrainian intelligence has reported that recovered systems included MESH modems that could enable operators to take control over those from Russian or occupied territory.

The Need for a Layered Approach

The experience of Operation Sindoor, also known as the battle between drones, has highlighted the importance of systems such as counter-drone systems and integrated air defence. However, simply acquiring more anti-drone guns, jammers, or interceptor UAVs is not enough to address the evolving threat posed by the Geran programme. India needs to develop a layered detect-to-engage architecture that can deal with targets having different speeds, altitudes, signatures, and levels of autonomy.

A key aspect of this layered approach is the need for modular counter-UAS design and the ability to rapidly introduce new interceptors if the threat evolves. The Geran programme has demonstrated its ability to rapidly adapt and improve, and India must plan for similar shorter testing and procurement cycles.

The Way Forward

The Geran programme's success is a stark reminder of the importance of continuous innovation and adaptation in the field of counter-drone systems. India must prioritize the development of a comprehensive and layered approach to counter-drone capabilities, one that takes into account the evolving threat posed by drones like the Geran.

• India must develop a layered detect-to-engage architecture that can deal with targets having different speeds, altitudes, signatures, and levels of autonomy.
• The country must prioritize the development of modular counter-UAS design and the ability to rapidly introduce new interceptors if the threat evolves.
• Continuous innovation and adaptation are crucial in the field of counter-drone systems, and India must invest in research and development to stay ahead of the evolving threat.

Key Takeaways

• The Geran programme has demonstrated a remarkable ability to evolve and adapt, posing a significant challenge to the effectiveness of India's current counter-drone capabilities.
• The increased speed and altitude of the Geran-4 and Geran-5 have made it increasingly difficult for counter-drone systems to detect and intercept these drones.
• India must develop a layered detect-to-engage architecture that can deal with targets having different speeds, altitudes, signatures, and levels of autonomy.
• Continuous innovation and adaptation are crucial in the field of counter-drone systems, and India must invest in research and development to stay ahead of the evolving threat.