India's BrahMos Missile: Unlocking a $5 Billion Export Empire

India's defence exports have witnessed a significant surge in recent years, with a 62% increase in the last fiscal, reaching 38,424 crore. The BrahMos missile has emerged as a key contributor to this growth, and its success has caught the attention of several countries. However, to achieve the ambitious target of 50,000 crore by 2029, India must address a critical challenge.

The lack of foreign maintenance hubs, logistics networks, and after-sales support is the biggest hurdle to BrahMos exports. Currently, the US and France provide institutional support for trained technicians, spare parts, and warranty-centric upgrades, whereas India's export structure focuses primarily on delivering the hardware. This limitation needs to be overcome to ensure that trained operators are available, along with spare parts, to facilitate seamless integration with diverse defence inventories.

India needs to create offshore maintenance, assembly, and repair locations in Southeast Asia, the Gulf, and Africa. This would not only ensure that BrahMos can be integrated smoothly into existing command and control infrastructure but also provide a competitive edge in the global market. The UAE and Indonesia, for instance, require assurance that BrahMos can be integrated seamlessly into their existing defence inventory.

To expand its customer base, India is also exploring the development of BrahMos-NG, a next-generation variant that is expected to be lighter and more versatile. This would enable BrahMos to be launched from a wider range of platforms, including smaller warships and aircraft, thereby increasing its appeal to potential customers. The BrahMos-NG variant is expected to be lighter, with a weight of 1.2 tonnes, compared to the current BrahMos, which weighs around three tonnes.

The success of BrahMos exports also depends on other factors, including the progress of active negotiations with countries such as the UAE and interest from other nations like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Thailand, Brazil, Chile, and South Africa. India is also exploring the possibility of offering composite solutions with Akash steer and Astra, which would not only increase the deal values but also create diplomatic entrapment.

To achieve its target of 50,000 crore by 2029, India needs to put in place a defence export financing framework. The Exim Bank of India could provide line-of-credit for purchasing Brahmos systems backed by government guarantee with either deferred payment, bartering against indigenous goods, or leasing options. This would allow smaller economies to breathe easier and make the BrahMos missile more attractive to potential customers.

Finally, India needs to eliminate the Russia veto bottleneck. Every single third-country Brahmos acquisition contract needs endorsement from the Russian government under the 50.5/49.5 JV arrangement. A pre-approval understanding with Russia under some form of standard protocol would ensure smooth transactions and diplomatic leverage.

Considering the potential of the BrahMos missile, India could net $3-5 billion for India over the coming ten years. Coupled with increased sales through BrahMos-NG's introduction to the market, bigger deals with composite solution sales, and recurring maintenance revenue, the BrahMos franchise alone is pegged to account for 20-30 per cent of India's targeted $50,000 crore defence exports by 2029. The missile with no customer till 2022 could very well end up being the singular biggest defence export item from India by 2030.