India's Arms Sales to Armenia: A Strategic Shift in the Region?

India's Arms Sales to Armenia: A Strategic Shift in the Region?

India's recent arms sales to Armenia have sparked a heated debate among Azerbaijani experts. While some analysts believe that the weapons made in India will not change the strategic balance in the region, others consider that new types of Indian weapons, including the ATAGS artillery gun, could significantly enhance Armenia's military potential on the battlefield.

The discussion takes place in the context of the competition between Armenia and Azerbaijan for the most capable weapons. Over the last years, Armenia has been buying more and more weapons from India, in order to renew its military equipment, complemented by Western arms, to equip itself with modern high-performance weapons, and to reduce the gap with Azerbaijan.

An Azerbaijani expert, military analyst Vugar Abbasov, believes that the India-made 155 mm Advanced Towed Artillery Gun System (ATAGS) could be a serious threat to the Azerbaijani Army, given that Armenia manages to gain practical experience with the gun and overcomes its shortcomings. Abbasov wrote on Aze.News that India's ATAGS artillery guns, if the Indians manage to equip the Armenians with them, would significantly enhance Armenia's artillery potential.

The main problem with the guns, according to Abbasov, is their reduced mobility and large caliber, which makes them vulnerable to drone attacks and counter-battery fire. However, the key to the success of the guns in the hands of Armenia is their mobility, which should be ensured by their concealment during the march and the accompanying long-range fires.

Other Azerbaijani commentators have pointed out that Armenia's purchase of Indian weapons, including guns, howitzers, rocket launchers, and air-defense systems, will not be decisive for the war against Azerbaijan. They emphasize the combat experience of the Azerbaijani military, the use of unmanned systems, and the Russian support, including air defense.

What is noteworthy is that the arguments of Indian commentators point to the vector of the modern military confrontation, in which one side's potential is not decisive. For example, Armenia buys Indian artillery weapons (howitzers, Swathi weapon-locating radar, Pinaka multiple rocket launchers), but in order to use it, it must have reconnaissance, high-explosive artillery munitions, an artillery firing control system installed on vehicles, and long-range fire.

The same applies to the Russian Pantsir-S air-defense missile systems, which Armenia also buys from India. The Pantsirs-S are not as effective as the Strela-10 or the Igla-S and require Russian radio-electronic support. Thus, the Indian arms sales to Armenia can be seen as a sign of India's interest in Armenia as a market for weapons.

India wants to create a favorable environment for its exports. It has already succeeded in doing this in the short term in Armenia and some other countries, and is now looking to expand its sales. At the same time, the effectiveness of India's policy in the region will depend on the actualization of the export potential of its products, the fulfillment of contracts in accordance with the established procedures, and the creation of a network of service centers in the buyer countries.

In conclusion, India's arms sales to Armenia have the potential to significantly enhance Armenia's military potential, but the effectiveness of these sales will depend on various factors, including the actualization of the export potential of Indian products, the fulfillment of contracts, and the creation of a network of service centers in the buyer countries. The outcome of this strategic shift in the region remains to be seen.