Autonomous Maritime Shift: India's Navy Weighs Options for Naval Modernization

India's naval modernization is at a critical juncture, with the country's Navy facing a difficult choice: should it focus its resources on a few highly capable manned platforms or explore the potential of autonomous systems? The answer to this question has significant implications for the future of naval warfare and the role of autonomous systems in maintaining a strategic edge in the region.

Rear Admiral Shekhar Mital, co-founder of Rekise Marine, has presented a thought-provoking comparison that highlights the potential benefits of investing in autonomous systems. According to his calculation, the cost of a single conventional submarine, estimated at approximately $736 million, could potentially fund a large fleet of 70 autonomous Jalkapi vessels, each allocated approximately $10.5 million. This raises interesting questions about the future of naval warfare and the role of autonomous systems in maintaining a strategic edge in the region.

However, it is essential to note that 70 Jalkapi vessels cannot replace the operational capabilities of a conventional submarine. A submarine brings stealth, endurance, weapons, sensors, and the ability to operate beneath the surface in ways that an autonomous surface or underwater platform of much smaller size may not replicate. India is already moving towards the development of large unmanned maritime systems, with a focus on scalability and flexibility.

The Navy has been pursuing Extra Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (XLUUVs) for various missions, including intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, anti-submarine warfare, anti-surface warfare, and mine warfare. Jalkapi fits into this broader shift towards autonomous maritime systems, which aims to deploy numerous relatively inexpensive systems that can spread out across a large area and perform specialized missions.

The biggest advantage of this autonomous model is its scalability. A fleet of dozens of autonomous vessels could potentially maintain persistent surveillance over large maritime areas, monitor chokepoints, support anti-submarine operations, and complicate an adversary's planning. An opponent would also have to consider the fact that seemingly empty areas of the ocean could be filled with autonomous systems, making it challenging to predict and prepare for potential threats.

The Indian Navy's exploration of large unmanned systems, including XLUUVs, demonstrates its commitment to staying ahead in the maritime domain. The autonomous model offers flexibility and scale, allowing India to maintain a strategic edge in the region. However, it is essential to note that the cost comparison should not be a reason for replacing conventional submarines with unmanned vessels. India's submarine fleet provides capabilities that autonomous systems cannot currently reproduce across the full spectrum of naval warfare.

Instead, the better approach would be to use both. High-value submarines can perform missions requiring stealth and human decision-making, while large numbers of autonomous vessels can provide surveillance, deception, distributed sensing, and other supporting functions. This integrated approach would allow India to leverage the strengths of both manned and unmanned systems, creating a more effective and adaptable naval force.

As the world's navies adapt to the changing landscape of naval warfare, one thing is clear: the future of maritime operations will be shaped by the integration of autonomous systems. The Indian Navy's exploration of large unmanned systems, including XLUUVs, is a significant step towards this future. By embracing the potential of autonomous systems, India can maintain a strategic edge in the region and ensure its naval modernization is effective and adaptable.

Key Takeaways

• The Indian Navy is at a crossroads, weighing the benefits of investing in elite manned platforms against the potential of autonomous systems.
• Rear Admiral Shekhar Mital's comparison highlights the potential benefits of investing in autonomous systems, with 70 Jalkapi vessels potentially funded by the cost of a single conventional submarine.
• Autonomous systems offer scalability and flexibility, allowing India to maintain a strategic edge in the region.
• The cost comparison should not be a reason for replacing conventional submarines with unmanned vessels.
• An integrated approach, using both manned and unmanned systems, would allow India to leverage the strengths of both and create a more effective and adaptable naval force.